PSR-0275 ORMONTE.

1. NAME OR DESIGNATION OF PROGRAM:  ORMONTE.

3. DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM OR FUNCTION

ORMONTE is a generic multivariable uncertainty analysis driver which can be linked to any FORTRAN model supplied by the user. The user tells ORMONTE which variables in his model are uncertain and describes the associated probability distributions. The user also tells ORMONTE which outputs from his model are of interest and for which uncertainty profiles are desired. Given the uncertainties in the inputs, ORMONTE samples  the user-defined input distributions and "drives" or runs the users  model enough times such that a probability histogram or profile is constructed for the user-defined outputs of interest. ORMONTE can also perform sequential one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity studies and elasticity analysis. The user-supplied model is not restricted to a shielding model. Any FORTRAN model where uncertain outputs can  be represented as functions of uncertain, independent inputs can be  used. The ORMONTE package includes a set of Probability Data Analysis (PDA) routines for converting raw probability data into probability distribution format suitable for input to ORMONTE.

4. METHOD OF SOLUTION

ORMONTE uses the Monte Carlo technique to sample user-defined input probability distributions.

5. RESTRICTIONS ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM:  None noted.

6. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

The SVSS sample problem took about 3.5 minutes; the MVSS option took about 9 minutes; and the ELAS option took about 40 seconds. These runs were made on an IBM PC/XT with a math co-processor. The PDA options were not tested by RSIC.

7. UNUSUAL FEATURES OF THE PROGRAM:

8. RELATED AND AUXILIARY PROGRAMS:

INTOHIST            Raw to comulative distribution data conversion
REGIN               Z-value for given probability
REGOUT              Probability for given z-value

10. REFERENCES:

- K.A. Williams and C.R. Hudson II:
  ORMONTE - An Uncertainty Analysis Code for Use with User-Developed
  Systems Models on Mainframe or Personnal Computers
  ORNL-TM-10714 (May 1989).

11. MACHINE REQUIREMENTS

ORMONTE runs on IBM PC and compatibles with a math co-processor. With minor modifications, such as FORTRAN OPEN statements, it has run on VAX, CRAY and IBM mainframes.

13. OPERATING SYSTEM UNDER WHICH PROGRAM IS EXECUTED

The code was written in FORTRAN 77 and was tested under PC-DOS (IBM PC). Executable files, produced by the RM FORTRAN Version 2.42 compiler,  are included. For the PDA options, LOTUS 1-2-3 software is required.

14. OTHER PROGRAMMING OR OPERATING INFORMATION OR RESTRICTIONS:

15. NAME AND ESTABLISHMENT OF AUTHORS

Developed by:
                Oak Ridge National Laboratory
                Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U. S. A.

File name	File description	Records
PSR0275_01.001	Information file	161
PSR0275_01.002	Batch file to compile ORMONTE	14
PSR0275_01.003	Batch file to Link ORMONTE	5
PSR0275_01.004	Batch file to run ORMONTE	3
PSR0275_01.005	File used by LINK.BAT	3
PSR0275_01.006	Source File	142
PSR0275_01.007	Source File	135
PSR0275_01.008	Source File	44
PSR0275_01.009	Source File	14
PSR0275_01.010	Source File	296
PSR0275_01.011	Source File	55
PSR0275_01.012	Source File	96
PSR0275_01.013	Source File	38
PSR0275_01.014	Source File	241
PSR0275_01.015	Source File	81
PSR0275_01.016	Source File	1213
PSR0275_01.017	Assembler random number generator	93
PSR0275_01.018	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	16
PSR0275_01.019	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	20
PSR0275_01.020	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	3
PSR0275_01.021	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	56
PSR0275_01.022	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	5
PSR0275_01.023	Input file for the sample runs for ORMONTE	7
PSR0275_01.024	ORMONTE output MVSS option	819
PSR0275_01.025	ORMONTE output ELAS option	1526
PSR0275_01.026	ORMONTE output SVSS option	2630
PSR0275_01.027	prog to convert parameters into distr. data	219
PSR0275_01.028	Sample input to INTOHIST	2000
PSR0275_01.029	INTOHIST Sample output	39
PSR0275_01.030	Sample output histogram param. from INTOHIST	5
PSR0275_01.031	Output from INTOHIST using LMRPLOT.DAT input	31
PSR0275_01.032	Sample input to INTOHIST	78
PSR0275_01.033	Source for probability data anlysis	29
PSR0275_01.034	Sample REGIN output	11
PSR0275_01.035	Source to provide probability data analysis	66
PSR0275_01.036	Spreadsheet file for prob data analysis	29
PSR0275_01.037	Standard deviation input to REGOUT	2
PSR0275_01.038	indicator file used by REGIN and REGOUT	1
PSR0275_01.039	Sum-of-squares average error of probability	1
PSR0275_01.040	User supplied input data	11
PSR0275_01.041	Standard normal data file	81
PSR0275_01.042	X-axis values for given mean and sigma	81
PSR0275_01.043	REGOUT probability output	11
PSR0275_01.044	DOS file-names	42