Workshop on uncertainties in the assessment of natural hazards (excluding earthquakes)
Background and objectives

To meet the overall safety objectives and to achieve a balanced plant design, natural hazards have to be considered in the design of nuclear installations. Deriving the strength of such events from available information is subject to large uncertainties as the knowledge about the underlying (natural) processes is still incomplete and available data are limited.

Whereas for seismic hazard assessments, the systematic evaluation of uncertainties has reached a relatively high level of maturity, this is not the case for most other natural hazards. Therefore, it was decided to compile a comprehensive overview on the topic of evaluation of uncertainties in natural hazard assessments. Such an overview is beneficial for both external hazard analysts and regulators.

This workshop is a part of NEA Working Group on External Events (WGEV) activity on “Uncertainties in the Assessment of Natural Hazards (Excluding Earthquakes).” It will focus on potential sources of uncertainties, whereas the next phase will address methods to evaluate (quantitatively or qualitatively) uncertainties.

The workshop is intended for developing a better understanding of the range and nature of uncertainties and provide the necessary input for the next phase that will address methods to assess (quantitatively or qualitatively) such uncertainties.